When will global oil demand peak?
Quick Answer
Projections range from 'already peaked' to 'not before 2040.' The IEA's central scenario shows peak demand in the late 2020s around 102 million barrels per day. OPEC projects demand continuing to grow through the 2040s. The actual timing depends heavily on policy, technology costs, and developing world growth—all uncertain.
Key Numbers
Full Analysis
In-depth exploration with citations and evidence
Understanding Peak Oil Demand#
Peak oil demand—the point at which global oil consumption reaches its maximum—is distinct from the older concept of "peak oil supply" (the idea that we would run out of oil). Today's debate is about demand, not supply.
Competing Projections#
Major forecasters disagree significantly :
IEA Scenarios
- Stated Policies: Peak ~102 mb/d in late 2020s
- Announced Pledges: Peak around 2025
- Net Zero: Already declining
Industry Projections
- OPEC: Continued growth to 116 mb/d by 2045 [source:opec-world-oil-outlook]
- ExxonMobil: Growth through 2040s
- Shell: Range of scenarios from decline to growth
Why Forecasts Differ
The gap between IEA and OPEC projections reflects:
- Different assumptions about policy implementation
- Varying views on EV adoption rates
- Disagreement on developing world demand growth
- Different treatment of petrochemical demand
Key Drivers to Watch#
Factors Accelerating Peak
- Faster EV adoption than projected
- Stricter climate policies
- Accelerating cost declines in alternatives
- Efficiency improvements
Factors Delaying Peak
- Slower policy implementation
- Developing world growth exceeding projections
- Petrochemical demand growth
- Aviation and shipping with few alternatives
What Peak Doesn't Mean#
Peak demand doesn't mean oil becomes irrelevant. Even a decade after peak:
- Demand remains in tens of millions of barrels daily
- Industry remains economically significant
- Transition management remains critical
Steelmanned Counterarguments
We present the strongest version of opposing viewpoints—not strawmen.
1Peak oil demand has already happened.
While demand in developed countries has peaked, global demand continues to grow driven by developing nations. COVID caused a temporary decline, but demand has recovered and continues growing in the current policies trajectory.
What Would Change Our Mind
If developing country demand growth stalled despite economic growth
This would suggest decoupling of development from oil use, changing long-term trajectory.