What replaces oil in transportation?
Quick Answer
Different transport modes need different solutions. Cars and light trucks are transitioning to batteries. Heavy trucks may use batteries, hydrogen, or synthetic fuels. Ships are exploring ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen. Aviation has the fewest options, likely requiring sustainable aviation fuels or hydrogen. The transition will take decades and won't be uniform.
Key Numbers
Full Analysis
In-depth exploration with citations and evidence
The Transportation Mix#
Oil powers different transport modes differently:
| Mode | Oil Share | Alternatives Available |
|---|---|---|
| Cars | 95% | Batteries (proven) |
| Light trucks | 95% | Batteries (scaling) |
| Heavy trucks | 98% | Batteries, H2, e-fuels (emerging) |
| Ships | 95% | Ammonia, methanol (pilot) |
| Aviation | 99% | SAF, H2 (early stage) |
Light Vehicles: The Clearest Path#
Battery electric vehicles are winning for cars:
- Cost parity approaching in many markets
- Range anxiety decreasing with 300+ mile ranges
- Charging infrastructure expanding rapidly
- Policy support accelerating adoption
Timeline: EVs could dominate new sales by 2035 in advanced economies.
Heavy Transport: Multiple Options#
Heavy trucks, ships, and planes face harder challenges:
Heavy Trucks
- Battery trucks for short-haul routes
- Hydrogen fuel cells for long-haul
- E-fuels possible but expensive
Shipping
- Ammonia as fuel gaining interest
- Methanol from green hydrogen
- Battery-hybrid for short routes
Aviation
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel (biofuels, e-fuels)
- Hydrogen for regional flights
- Electric for very short routes
- No scalable solution for long-haul yet
The Timeline Reality#
Fleet turnover means transitions take time:
- Cars: 12-15 year average lifespan
- Trucks: 10-15 years
- Ships: 25-30 years
- Aircraft: 20-30 years
Even with rapid new technology adoption, significant oil use continues for decades.
Steelmanned Counterarguments
We present the strongest version of opposing viewpoints—not strawmen.
1EVs will completely replace oil cars within a decade.
New EV sales are growing rapidly, but the global fleet of 1.4 billion vehicles turns over slowly. Even at 100% EV new sales, half the fleet would still be internal combustion after 10-15 years.