Is natural gas a 'bridge fuel' to clean energy?
Quick Answer
Natural gas emits 50-60% less CO2 than coal when burned for electricity, leading some to advocate it as a 'bridge' from coal to renewables. However, methane leaks from gas systems can offset climate benefits. Whether gas is a useful bridge depends on: how long the bridge lasts, methane leakage rates, and whether it displaces coal or crowds out renewables.
Key Numbers
Full Analysis
In-depth exploration with citations and evidence
The Bridge Fuel Argument#
Why Gas Might Be a Bridge
- 50-60% less CO2 than coal for electricity
- Existing infrastructure and expertise
- Reliable backup for variable renewables
- Lower capital costs than nuclear
Why the Bridge May Be Too Long
- Gas infrastructure lasts 40+ years
- Locks in fossil fuel dependency
- Renewables now cheaper than new gas plants
- Methane leaks reduce climate benefit
The Methane Problem#
Methane is 80x more potent than CO2 over 20 years:
Supply Chain Leaks
- Production: 1-2%
- Processing: 0.2-0.5%
- Transmission: 0.3-0.5%
- Distribution: 0.1-0.3%
- Total: ~2-3%
If leakage exceeds 3-4%, gas loses its climate advantage over coal.
Regional Differences#
Where Gas May Help
- Countries still building coal plants
- Regions with limited renewable resources
- As backup for renewable grids
Where Gas Is Problematic
- Advanced economies with mature grids
- New gas plants competing with renewables
- Long-term LNG contracts locking in demand
The Current Trajectory#
Gas may be displacing coal AND slowing renewables:
- Coal use declining globally
- Gas growing in many regions
- Renewables growing fastest but from smaller base
Whether this is a "bridge" depends on how quickly we cross it.
Steelmanned Counterarguments
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1Gas is just as bad as coal when methane leaks are counted.
Only if methane leakage exceeds ~3-4%. Current estimates are 2-3% on average, meaning gas still has climate benefits, but the margin is smaller than CO2-only comparisons suggest. Reducing methane leaks is critical.