Renewable energy can completely replace oil within the next decade.

Context#

Optimism about renewable energy growth sometimes leads to claims that oil can be rapidly replaced.

Evidence#

What's Growing Fast

• Solar and wind electricity generation growing 15-25%/year
• Electric vehicle sales growing ~30%/year
• Heat pump adoption accelerating

The Scale Challenge

• Global oil consumption: ~100 million barrels/day
• Oil provides 31% of world energy
• 1.4 billion internal combustion vehicles in global fleet
• Aviation, shipping, petrochemicals lack ready alternatives

What IEA Scenarios Show

Even the aggressive Net Zero Scenario shows:

• 2030: 88 million b/d oil demand (12% reduction)
• 2050: 25 million b/d (75% reduction)
• Three decades for major reduction, not one

Analysis#

While renewable electricity and EVs are growing rapidly, they cannot replace oil completely within a decade because:

1. Fleet turnover takes 12-15 years for cars, longer for trucks/ships
2. Aviation and shipping lack scalable alternatives
3. Petrochemicals require oil feedstocks
4. Infrastructure changes require time and investment

The claim conflates rapid growth rates with rapid absolute replacement. A decade is insufficient even in optimistic scenarios.