We only have 50 years of oil left.

Context#

The "reserves-to-production ratio" (R/P ratio) is often misinterpreted as a countdown to running out of oil.

Evidence#

The R/P Ratio

• Current proved reserves: ~1.7 trillion barrels
• Annual production: ~35 billion barrels
• R/P ratio: ~50 years

Why It's Misleading

• Proved reserves only count economically extractable oil
• Reserves have historically grown as technology improved
• We've had "40 years left" for over 100 years

What Actually Limits Oil

• Economics (high-cost oil becomes unviable)
• Technology (can we extract difficult reserves?)
• Demand (will we want to use it?)
• Policy (will we be allowed to?)

Analysis#

"Mostly false" because:

• The R/P ratio isn't a countdown
• New reserves are continually discovered/proved
• We won't "run out" suddenly

The more relevant questions are:

• At what price will remaining oil be extractable?
• Will demand decline before supply constraints?
• Should we extract remaining oil given climate?