Transitioning away from oil will create more jobs than it destroys.

Context#

Proponents of rapid energy transition claim that "green jobs" will replace oil and gas employment. The evidence suggests this is wishful thinking, especially for Canada.

Evidence#

What Oil & Gas Jobs Pay

Average annual earnings:

• Oil & gas extraction: $120,000+
• Pipeline transportation: $100,000+
• Petroleum refining: $95,000+
• National average (all industries): $59,000

These are among the highest-paying jobs in Canada, often in communities with few alternatives.

The "Green Jobs" Reality

Typical renewable energy wages:

• Solar panel installation: $45,000-55,000
• Wind turbine technician: $50,000-60,000
• Energy efficiency auditor: $50,000-65,000

Even where jobs are "created," they often:

• Pay 40-50% less than oil & gas jobs
• Offer fewer benefits and less job security
• Require workers to relocate to different regions
• Are often temporary construction jobs, not permanent operations

Geographic Mismatch

Oil and gas jobs are concentrated in:

• Alberta (major production)
• Saskatchewan (heavy oil, potash)
• British Columbia (natural gas)
• Newfoundland & Labrador (offshore)
• Northern and rural communities

Renewable energy jobs tend to be in:

• Urban manufacturing centers
• Southern Ontario and Quebec
• Locations with different skill requirements

Telling a Fort McMurray pipefitter to become a Toronto solar installer isn't a "transition"—it's displacement.

The Numbers Don't Add Up

Canadian oil & gas employment:

• 600,000+ direct and indirect jobs
• $100+ billion in annual GDP
• $20+ billion in government revenues

Promised "green" replacements:

• Government projections consistently overestimate
• Many "green jobs" already exist and aren't new
• Subsidies required to make projects viable
• Jobs often temporary (construction phase)

Real-World Examples

Germany's Energiewende:

• Spent €500+ billion on energy transition
• Electricity prices among highest in Europe
• Still depends heavily on imported gas
• Coal phase-out required compensation packages

Alberta's Coal Transition:

• Thousands of coal workers displaced
• Promised retraining programs underdelivered
• Many workers took early retirement, not new jobs
• Communities still struggling years later

What Workers Actually Want

Surveys of energy workers show:

• Most want to continue in their field
• Skepticism about "retraining" promises
• Concern about wage and benefit cuts
• Preference for stable, long-term employment

Analysis#

This claim is mostly false. While some renewable energy jobs will be created, they won't replace oil and gas employment in terms of quantity, quality, or location.

The math doesn't work: you cannot replace $120,000/year jobs with $50,000/year jobs and call it progress. You cannot move jobs from Alberta to Ontario and tell displaced workers their sacrifice is for the greater good. You cannot promise "just transition" while dismantling the industry that funds the social programs meant to help.

Energy workers see through these promises because they've watched them fail before. The honest answer is that rapid transition would devastate communities and families—and no amount of retraining programs or talking points changes that reality.